Real prices in March 2023 were in the 40th percentile for all months since 2000, down from the 68th percentile in March 2022, and similar to March 2019 before the pandemic.īrent’s six-month calendar spread slipped to a backwardation of $2.50 per barrel (79th percentile), down from over $10 (98th percentile) a year earlier. The progressive normalisation of inventories took the upward pressure off oil prices and calendar spreads over the past year.įront-month Brent futures slipped to around $80 per barrel at the end of March 2023 from $108 at the end of March 2022 and a high of around $130 in May and June 2022, after adjusting for inflation. SPR was depleted by 195 million barrels.īy the end of March, inventories were just 15 million barrels (-0.5% or -0.09 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average, down from a deficit of 192 million barrels (-7% or 1.10 standard deviations) a year earlier. In the countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), commercial stocks of crude and refined products stood at 2,804 million barrels at the end of March (“ Short-Term Energy Outlook”, EIA, May 12).Ĭommercial petroleum inventories had increased by 200 million barrels compared with the same month a year earlier but over the same time the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the previous 12 months. LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Global commercial oil inventories were close to their long-term seasonal average at the end of the first quarter of 2023 following massive releases from the U.S.
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